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Note: i3PO best used on a laptop or desktop

Selection
How to Get Started

i3PO guides you through a 3-step process to evaluate risk vs reward for ~500 stocks. Start by making a selection below or, to go over the S&P 500 in total, click here.

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or, make your selection directly in table below (clicking headers will sort). 

Ticker
Name
Sector
% vs S&P 500 (3m)
WSM
Williams-Sonoma Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-1.6
WDAY
Workday Inc
Information Technology
6.4
WPX
WPX Energy Inc
Energy
-34.7
WW
WW International Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-30.6
WYND
Wyndham Destinations Inc
Consumer Discretionary
2.4
WH
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc
Consumer Discretionary
7.9
WYNN
Wynn Resorts Ltd
Consumer Discretionary
-8.2
XEL
Xcel Energy Inc
Utilities
1.3
XLNX
Xilinx Inc
Information Technology
0.8
XPO
XPO Logistics Inc
Industrials
3.2
XYL
Xylem Inc/NY
Industrials
25.6
YELP
Yelp Inc
Communication Services
-17.8
YETI
YETI Holdings Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-2.5
YUM
Yum! Brands Inc
Consumer Discretionary
0.9
ZEN
Zendesk Inc
Information Technology
8.3
ZBH
Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc
Health Care
8.8
ZTS
Zoetis Inc
Health Care
10.9
ZS
Zscaler Inc
Information Technology
14.5
ZNGA
Zynga Inc
Communication Services
-12.5
PTON
Peloton Interactive Inc
Consumer Discretionary
44.9
ZM
Zoom Video Communications Inc
Information Technology
70.2
VRSK
Verisk Analytics Inc
Industrials
1.3
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc
Communication Services
3.6
VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
Health Care
-15.3
VFC
VF Corp
Consumer Discretionary
10.2
VIAC
ViacomCBS Inc
Communication Services
20.5
VIAV
Viavi Solutions Inc
Information Technology
-11.7
V
Visa Inc
Information Technology
-4.3
VST
Vistra Corp
Utilities
-9.4
VMW
VMware Inc
Information Technology
-10.8
VG
Vonage Holdings Corp
Communication Services
-6.8
VMC
Vulcan Materials Co
Materials
4.4
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technol
Industrials
-1.3
WBA
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc
Consumer Staples
-20.9
WMT
Walmart Inc
Consumer Staples
8.5
DIS
Walt Disney Co/The
Communication Services
4.5
WM
Waste Management Inc
Industrials
3.3
W
Wayfair Inc
Consumer Discretionary
31.4
WEC
WEC Energy Group Inc
Utilities
4.8
WEN
Wendy's Co/The
Consumer Discretionary
-3.8
WERN
Werner Enterprises Inc
Industrials
-2.9
WCC
WESCO International Inc
Industrials
6.3
WDC
Western Digital Corp
Information Technology
-16.3
WU
Western Union Co/The
Information Technology
-3.4
WRK
Westrock Co
Materials
18
WMB
Williams Cos Inc/The
Energy
-0.9
TJX
TJX Cos Inc/The
Consumer Discretionary
-1.4
TOL
Toll Brothers Inc
Consumer Discretionary
47.8
TSCO
Tractor Supply Co
Consumer Discretionary
0.4
TTD
Trade Desk Inc/The
Information Technology
5.1
TT
Trane Technologies PLC
Industrials
31.7
RIG
Transocean Ltd
Energy
-56.2
TRU
TransUnion
Industrials
-10.9
TREX
Trex Co Inc
Industrials
5.1
TRMB
Trimble Inc
Information Technology
3.6
TRIP
TripAdvisor Inc
Communication Services
-2
TWLO
Twilio Inc
Information Technology
4.6
TWTR
Twitter Inc
Communication Services
30.6
TSN
Tyson Foods Inc
Consumer Staples
-9.7
UBER
Uber Technologies Inc
Industrials
3.6
ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc
Consumer Discretionary
5.4
UAA
Under Armour Inc
Consumer Discretionary
8.9
UNP
Union Pacific Corp
Industrials
11.3
UAL
United Airlines Holdings Inc
Industrials
-10.4
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc
Industrials
37.9
URI
United Rentals Inc
Industrials
9.7
X
United States Steel Corp
Materials
-11.4
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Health Care
-6.2
URBN
Urban Outfitters Inc
Consumer Discretionary
22.7
VLO
Valero Energy Corp
Energy
-26.1
VEEV
Veeva Systems Inc
Health Care
8
SUM
Summit Materials Inc
Materials
-6.5
SPWR
SunPower Corp
Information Technology
91
RUN
Sunrun Inc
Industrials
189.7
SWCH
Switch Inc
Information Technology
-22.5
SNPS
Synopsys Inc
Information Technology
0.9
SYY
Sysco Corp
Consumer Staples
6.3
TMUS
T-Mobile US Inc
Communication Services
-4.7
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive Software
Communication Services
10.5
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care Inc
Health Care
19.1
TPR
Tapestry Inc
Consumer Discretionary
23.2
TRGP
Targa Resources Corp
Energy
-32.1
TGT
Target Corp
Consumer Discretionary
20.5
TEL
TE Connectivity Ltd
Information Technology
13.3
FTI
TechnipFMC PLC
Energy
-18
TDOC
Teladoc Health Inc
Health Care
-4
THC
Tenet Healthcare Corp
Health Care
15.8
TDC
Teradata Corp
Information Technology
5.5
TER
Teradyne Inc
Information Technology
-14.6
TEX
Terex Corp
Industrials
-7.6
TSLA
Tesla Inc
Consumer Discretionary
86.8
TXN
Texas Instruments Inc
Information Technology
3.8
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse Inc
Consumer Discretionary
10.2
TXT
Textron Inc
Industrials
-0.2
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc
Health Care
12.9
TIF
Tiffany & Co
Consumer Discretionary
-8.3
SRE
Sempra Energy
Utilities
-6.3
ST
Sensata Technologies Holding P
Industrials
10.9
NOW
ServiceNow Inc
Information Technology
8.8
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc
Consumer Discretionary
18.3
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings Inc
Communication Services
-16.8
SIX
Six Flags Entertainment Corp
Consumer Discretionary
-4.6
SKX
Skechers USA Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-5.3
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions Inc
Information Technology
0.9
SMAR
Smartsheet Inc
Information Technology
-16.4
AOS
A O Smith Corp
Industrials
12.5
SO
Southern Co/The
Utilities
-1.7
LUV
Southwest Airlines Co
Industrials
6.2
SWN
Southwestern Energy Co
Energy
-3.5
SPR
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings In
Industrials
-25.6
SAVE
Spirit Airlines Inc
Industrials
-14.2
SPLK
Splunk Inc
Information Technology
-13.4
SPOT
Spotify Technology SA
Communication Services
-17.9
SFM
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc
Consumer Staples
-17.9
SQ
Square Inc
Information Technology
38.1
SSNC
SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc
Information Technology
2.3
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker Inc
Industrials
10.1
SBUX
Starbucks Corp
Consumer Discretionary
6.8
STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc
Materials
2.7
SFIX
Stitch Fix Inc
Consumer Discretionary
4.2
SYK
Stryker Corp
Health Care
7.6
QCOM
QUALCOMM Inc
Information Technology
19.8
PWR
Quanta Services Inc
Industrials
25.4
DGX
Quest Diagnostics Inc
Health Care
-4.2
RL
Ralph Lauren Corp
Consumer Discretionary
-3.2
RRC
Range Resources Corp
Energy
23.1
RTX
Raytheon Technologies Corp
Industrials
-10.7
REAL
RealReal Inc/The
Consumer Discretionary
1.3
RRR
Red Rock Resorts Inc
Consumer Discretionary
44.3
REGN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc
Health Care
-14.6
RSG
Republic Services Inc
Industrials
9.5
RH
RH
Consumer Discretionary
31.2
RNG
RingCentral Inc
Information Technology
-11.9
RHI
Robert Half International Inc
Industrials
-2.3
ROK
Rockwell Automation Inc
Industrials
-0.8
ROKU
Roku Inc
Communication Services
37
ROST
Ross Stores Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-2.3
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd
Consumer Discretionary
17.3
SAIL
Sailpoint Technologies Holding
Information Technology
31.6
CRM
salesforce.com Inc
Information Technology
19.8
SLB
Schlumberger NV
Energy
-14.3
STNG
Scorpio Tankers Inc
Energy
-24.3
STX
Seagate Technology PLC
Information Technology
-5.6
SEE
Sealed Air Corp
Materials
13.5
SGEN
Seattle Genetics Inc
Health Care
1.5
SEAS
SeaWorld Entertainment Inc
Consumer Discretionary
27
PTEN
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
Energy
-29
PAYX
Paychex Inc
Information Technology
-1.3
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc
Information Technology
0.3
PBF
PBF Energy Inc
Energy
-44.2
PDCE
PDC Energy Inc
Energy
-22.6
PENN
Penn National Gaming Inc
Consumer Discretionary
91.7
PNR
Pentair PLC
Industrials
16.5
PEP
PepsiCo Inc
Consumer Staples
-4.9
PFE
Pfizer Inc
Health Care
5.1
PM
Philip Morris International In
Consumer Staples
2.6
PSX
Phillips 66
Energy
-28.4
PING
Ping Identity Holding Corp
Information Technology
-13.1
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital Corp
Utilities
-3.2
PXD
Pioneer Natural Resources Co
Energy
-15.8
PLNT
Planet Fitness Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-13
PS
Pluralsight Inc
Information Technology
-9.8
PII
Polaris Inc
Consumer Discretionary
-7.6
PPG
PPG Industries Inc
Materials
9.9
PPL
PPL Corp
Utilities
-3.2
PG
Procter & Gamble Co/The
Consumer Staples
10.3
PEG
Public Service Enterprise Grou
Utilities
5.9
PHM
PulteGroup Inc
Consumer Discretionary
29.3
PSTG
Pure Storage Inc
Information Technology
-17.2
PVH
PVH Corp
Consumer Discretionary
25.4
QRVO
Qorvo Inc
Information Technology
8.9
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corp
Industrials
18.6
NLOK
NortonLifeLock Inc
Information Technology
-0.5
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
Consumer Discretionary
-13.6
NRG
NRG Energy Inc
Utilities
-15.5
NUE
Nucor Corp
Materials
2.6
NTNX
Nutanix Inc
Information Technology
-6.7
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp
Information Technology
23.6
OI
O-I Glass Inc
Materials
7.3
OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corp
Energy
-45.5
OGE
OGE Energy Corp
Utilities
-8.1
OKTA
Okta Inc
Information Technology
-4.9
OLN
Olin Corp
Materials
-2.4
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holding
Consumer Discretionary
-16.1
OMC
Omnicom Group Inc
Communication Services
-12
ON
ON Semiconductor Corp
Information Technology
-1
OKE
ONEOK Inc
Energy
-28.9
ORCL
Oracle Corp
Information Technology
3.3
OTIS
Otis Worldwide Corp
Industrials
4.9
OC
Owens Corning
Industrials
16.2
PCG
PG&E Corp
Utilities
-4.4
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
Industrials
6.5
PANW
Palo Alto Networks Inc
Information Technology
-0.4
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corp
Industrials
5.4
PE
Parsley Energy Inc
Energy
-22.1
PDCO
Patterson Cos Inc
Health Care
0.6
MRNA
Moderna Inc
Health Care
-0.2
TAP
Molson Coors Beverage Co
Consumer Staples
-11.8
MDLZ
Mondelez International Inc
Consumer Staples
3.9
MDB
MongoDB Inc
Information Technology
-7.3
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is this your selection? scroll down, if so...

Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM

i3PO's 3-Step Process

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Scroll down to get started...

1. Fundamentals
Step 1 of 3: Fundamentals 
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i3PO's process:  fundamentals  x  valuation risk/reward

Why important: The path of fundamentals is the single-most important driver of returns over time: Stocks or indices where fundamentals are improving/growing, tend to go up...and vice versa.

How to use this section: Go through each question in order. 1A-1D help you understand the financial trends and issues. 1E is a framework to help you think about how the business may evolve.

Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM

data as of 9/25/2020 | earnings to be released on 11/20/2020

 1A.   First, understand the business. 
00:00 / 00:45
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. retails cooking and serving equipment, home furnishings, and home accessories through retail stores, mail order catalogs, and e-commerce.
Sector
Group
Industry
Consumer Discretionary
Retailing
Specialty Retail
 1B.   Understand the financials. What has driven earnings? What is expected to drive earnings from here?
00:00 / 00:19

Key Financial Data (in millions, except EPS data)

(LTM=last 12 mth, -2LTM= 12 mths before, NTM=consensus forecast   |   LQ=last quarter, NQ=next quarter)

Last 12 months (LTM)

n/a

Next 12 months (NTM)

n/a

 1C.   Evaluate the quality of earnings. Earnings should be a proxy for cash flow, the ultimate goal, over time.
00:00 / 00:21

CASH FLOW: By adding up recent quarters, I see that the company generated positive cash flow of 917 million vs net income of 763 million.This is GREAT. The business model seems to be driving more cash flow compared to net income.

 1D.   Understand how the business is financed. How much risk is being taken with debt?
00:00 / 00:15
Market Capitalization
+ Total Debt
+ Pref Equity & MI
- Cash & Equivalents
= Enterprise Value
6,749
2,089
0
948
7,890

LEVERAGE: Note that net debt to EBITDA was 1.3x for the last year, which is at the HIGH-END for the past few years. Management has a bit of debt on the company. This still looks conservative for most businesses, depending on the volatility in the business.

 1E.   Analyze how fundamentals may evolved using i3PO's 2x2 framework.
00:00 / 00:50
Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM

Here are the last 12 months (LTM) and next 12 months (NTM) consensus expectations mapped onto i3PO's 2x2 framework. Review how consensus expects businesses in the index to evolve, how those expectations have changed recently and think about where your views agree or disagree.
 

Below are some links to get started with your own research:
 

  • Company: Investor relations will have latest earnings releases & webcasts (see link above)
     

  • SEC filings: Understand the company's strategy and risks (click here for SEC, here for quick guide video)
     

  • News: Review latest company news from sites such as Yahoo financeGoogle finance or Bloomberg

Revenue: Quadrant progression & consensus change
LTM
BULL-ish

Revenue has GROWN at a WORSENING rate (3.6% vs 6.4%)

NTM
BULL

Revenue is expected to GROW at a IMPROVING rate (4.9% vs 3.6%)

Over the last 60 days, consensus expectations for NTM revenue have gone from 5,988 to 6,309, which is a 5.4% change.

EBITDA: Quadrant progression & consensus change
LTM
BULL-ish

EBITDA has GROWN at a WORSENING rate (13.2% vs 20.0%)

NTM
BEAR

EBITDA is expected to DECLINE at a WORSENING rate (-7.6% vs 13.2%)

Over the last 60 days, consensus expectations for NTM EBITDA have gone from 694 to 830, which is a 19.6% change.

EPS: Quadrant progression & consensus change
LTM
BULL

EPS has GROWN at a IMPROVING rate (22.3% vs 14.3%)

NTM
BULL-ish

EPS is expected to GROW at a WORSENING rate (11.9% vs 22.3%)

Over the last 60 days, consensus expectations for NTM EPS have gone from 4.68 to 6.10, which is a 30.0% change.

2. Valuation
Step 2 of 3: Valuation 
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i3PO's process:  fundamentals  x  valuation risk/reward

Why important:  To forecast the direction of the stock, correctly anticipating fundamentals is just one component. You also have to anticipate how the market will value those fundamentals. 

How to use this section: Go through each of the questions below to understand how the market is valuing the company which can then help inform how you anticipate it will be valued in the future.

Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM

data as of 9/25/2020 | earnings to be released on 11/20/2020

 2A.   How has the stock done recently?
00:00 / 00:10
Stock Price
Return 12 mth
vs S&P 500 (12m)
vs S&P 500 (3m)
86.75
32.3%
21.4%
-1.6%

OBSERVATION: The stock has been a LAGGARD, UNDERPERFORMING the market by -2%.

IMPLICATIONS/QUESTIONS: Stocks are impacted by the overall economy, sector news and company-specific performance. Ensure you understand what has driven the recent move.

 2B.   What valuation multiple is the market applying to the stock?
00:00 / 01:04
P/E
price-to earnings
EV/EBITDA
enterprise value to ebitda
EV/Sales
enterprise value to sales
P/BV
price to book value
Reference
S&P 500 P/E multiple
multiple
z-score
14.2x
-0.7
7.9x
-0.3
1.3x
0.5
5.1x
0.5
22.2x
0.8

In terms of valuation, the stock currently trades at 1.25x sales. This is 0.5 standard deviations from the recent trend, a slight signal that the market is a bit more BULLISH on future trends. Note: as a reference, the S&P 500 P/E multiple is trading at 0.8 standard deviations from the average of the last year.

The market is valuing the company in a bit more bulllish way. This is nothing that abnormal but it makes sense to monitor how this trends from here. Keep in mind this is just one valuation methodology so take a look at the others as well.

2020-06-07_10-18-43_edited.png
 2C.   Have sector rotations helped or hurt recently?
00:00 / 00:41

The company is part of the CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY sector, which has been in the WEAKENING quadrant relative to other sectors, which means relative returns are positive BUT momentum is slowing.

3. Risk/Reward
Step 3 of 3: Risk/Reward 
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00:00 / 00:25

i3PO's process:  fundamentals  x  valuation risk/reward

Why important:  Ultimately, you want to have a good view of the risk of losing money vs the reward of making it. i3PO's process culminates with calculations on risk and reward, upside and downside, so you can make better decisions.

How to use this section: Follow the steps to evaluate risk and reward. First, I'll help you by framing a bull and bear case and reviewing market signals. Then, we can work together on your own case with your assumptions. 

Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM

data as of 9/25/2020 | earnings to be released on 11/20/2020

 3A.   Review market signals that may challenge or confirm your views.
00:00 / 00:37
Market signal: Short interest (how many believe downside to the stock price from here?)

At 9.1%, there is A BIT of short interest. Note that this level has become more BULLISH as the current level is -0.6 standard deviations from the recent past.

Questions you should ask are (1) is the level of short interest aligned to my view and (2) is the trend agreeing, or disagreeing, with me? Short interest is simply another data point to consider. If there are lots of people disagreeing with you, you should take some time to ensure you understand why they are wrong.

Market signal: Options (are options prices indicating bullish or bearish views?)

The cost of put vs call options is now -0.6 standard deviations from the recent trend. This is not that out of the ordinary so there is not much of a signal here.

Note that options prices can change a lot in a short amount of time. Stay informed by checking back often.

Market signal: Insider buying/selling (what are insiders actions telling you?)
Insiders have to report their buying and selling. It is important to know that insiders can buy and sell for all sorts of reasons, but it can help understand what they are really thinking. For example, a big open market purchase after a stock is down is a signal that management believes in the upside from here. It is important to know if it is part of an options plan (less of a signal) or an open market buy/sell (more of a signal). 
See this website for a free compilation (type ticker in top right box):  https://www.insidertracking.com/
 3B.  Evaluate your base case scenario. 
00:00 / 02:53
Up until now, you have been reviewing information i3PO provides. Now you can begin to integrate your own thinking to evaluate risk and reward. i3PO has gathered relevant information below. Input your assumptions on fundamentals and valuation in the yellow boxes to get started. After seeing the results, i3PO can give you feedback on your assumptions, if desired.
Below is just one methodology, price-to-earnings (P/E). Click here for others (ev/ebitda, ev/sales, p/bv, p/e). 

vs LTM

vs NTM

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Analysis
Williams-Sonoma Inc | WSM

data as of 9/25/2020 | earnings to be released on 11/20/2020

Input Your Assumptions
Enter EPS forecast (NTM)

x

Growth % past NTM

=

EPS for multiple
Data and Commentary
Compare your forecast
Amount
% Diff
Enter your next 12 month EPS forecast (NTM) and then growth for NTM from there. Why growth past NTM? Given we are forecasting a 12 month return and are using forward multiples, your NTM forecast will have happened in 12 months and the market will be focused on growth from there. 

x

Valuation multiple 

=

Implied stock price
Multiple
Z-Score
Current
You
S&P 500 P/E
Compare your forecast to the current multiple. Also, take note of the z-score to ensure you understand how different your forecast is from the recent range.
work in process!

/

Enter current stock price

=

% up, downside
Stock price
Note our stock prices are on a delay as of the date at top of this box. To get current prices, lookup here.
Enter dividend/share

=

% additional return
Amount
% Diff

vs LTM

vs NTM

Enter dividends to be received. Typically, LTM dividends are repeated but not always so check NTM consensus expectations.

=

% total return
i3PO will take a look at your assumptions and give you feedback. This can be a helpful check as if you were testing your assumptions with a peer or co-worker. Click below.
click for i3PO's feedback

Hello, as I look through your inputs here are my thoughts.









FYI, the S&P 500 is currently trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.8 standard deviations from its past one year average. Keep this in mind as you evaluate your assumptions as company valuations are based partially on their prospects but also on the market as a whole.

---

As a reminder, my goal is to highlight what I see to help you think more effectively - nothing more, nothing less.

Have a good day.

-

 3C.  Analyze additional scenarios: base, high and low cases. Calculate expected return.
00:00 / 01:24
The benefits of developing multiple cases for a stock are that it (a) ensures you are thinking through both risk and reward and (b) helps keep your thinking flexible versus focusing on just one possible scenario. Go back to step 3A and evaluate other scenarios, such as high or low cases different from your base case. Input results here, evaluate the probability of each case and see the expected return taking into account all scenarios.​
Probability-adjusted expected return
High
Forecast
stock price
/
Current
stock price
Base
Low
work in process!
=
Implied
% return
=
Dividend
/share
Dividend
yield
=
Total return
x
Assigned probability 
Expected Return
=
Probability-adjusted return*

Error sum cannot be more than 100% >>>